Future of North Korea
After the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il in the US are built different assumptions will change the nature of governance in North Korea under the new leadership.
The head of the Washington research organization “of the Asia-American initiative” the al Santoli believes that while no changes in North Korean system of government will not, no so-called “spring”, can not be expected, for to run the country remain the same generals.
— The North Koreans always remember that when Korea consisted of three kingdoms: in the South, in the Central part and the North. The inhabitants of the Northern Kingdom was always staring at his leader like a deity, spirit in the Mongolian tradition. The ruler is God. This tradition is quite compatible now with the Communist ideology. Many in the West do not understand the existence of such a symbiosis of Communist fanaticism with a long national tradition of North Korea. Therefore, regardless of intelligence, knowledge, talent of the head of the country, ensured the deification of him. Fanaticism and the tradition of deification — that is the reason for the slight intoxication of the people of North Korea.
— Following God will become the country’s Kim Jong-UN, the youngest son of Kim Jong-Il?
— He or other sons are not of great importance, because anyone who comes to power, will rely on the support of the army and security bodies, on the support of China and partly Russia. But China, of course, to a much greater extent. North Korea is quite rich in minerals, which is interested in China.
America in its desire to provide North Korea food aid has a purely humanitarian purpose?
— A lot of things in American politics is difficult to explain. Our current leadership hopes that demonstrating good intentions, amber dictatorial regimes, can achieve mitigation. A naive view when it comes to North Korean regime. Food aid reaches the population. She will go to feed the army. Pyongyang does not believe his people. Therefore, in the country now reinforced military position in order to prevent any popular unrest. There wouldn’t be. The army will not allow. She’s fed. Her loyalty to the regime is more important than the gratitude of the people. Not Kim Jong-UN and the generals will be running the country. So it was under Kim Jong Il. And at the moment the status quo suits China, and even South Korea, which is economically not survive unification with the North will not be able to adapt the 24 million North Koreans. It would destroy South Korean economy. China is also afraid of any changes and weakening of the North Korean regime, because this could lead to China millions of North Korean refugees. Beijing has their own problems. The Chinese economy is not as strong as some think. “Wall Street Journal” and other financial newspaper advises Americans to be careful with investments in China. The United States stands ready to help the new leadership with the only hope that realistic thinking people in Pyongyang a more responsible approach to the problem of nuclear weapons, is not to use it to the detriment of not only their own country but also worldwide.
American political scientist Michael Donkey from the Institute “American enterprise,” compares the current situation in North Korea with the situation in the Soviet Union, when the Chairman of the funeral Commission was the one who later became head of state. In North Korea the Commission was headed by Kim Jong-UN, the youngest son of the late dictator. However, Michael continues Donkey, a 29-year-old Kim Jong-UN may be merely a symbol of continuity of power, whereas the true leaders will be influential 65-year-old uncle Jang song Taek and the military brass.
Remember that in the Soviet Union after the death of Stalin came to power so-called collective leadership. But, as in the Soviet Union and North Korea, three, which, according to some reports will run the country and consisting of Kim Jong-UN, his uncle and one of the higher generals, is unlikely to last long. So says Ralph Koss . President of the research organization “Pacific forum”. The struggle for absolute power will be felt.
However, for the survival of the regime the members of the collective leadership would stick together for a while. Ralph Koss believes that the situation in North Korea is little changed, although there may be some reform of the Chinese sample. But hope for nuclear disarmament of North Korea in the foreseeable future it is not necessary, the analyst believes. According to Michael Dunkey, the world needs to be ready for new provocations from Pyongyang in the form of nuclear or missile tests, or limited attacks against South Korea. Such steps the new leadership of North Korea can take to demonstrate their strength, their faith in the course of Kim Jong-Il. It is not excluded that it will occur immediately after the funeral on December 28. Such steps can be caused by internal struggle within the North Korean elite, and by the desire to warn Seoul and Washington that any regime change in North Korea will not.